Crisis on Europe’s doorstep

Tim Judah

Well, hello, and welcome to Chatham House’s discussion this afternoon on Bosnia and Herzegovina, a Crisis on Europe’s Doorstep. I’m actually Tim – I’m Tim Judah. I’m a Journalist for The Economist and I’ve been covering Bosnia for a very long time. I’m actually in Lviv, in Western Ukraine, and we’re entitling this Crisis on Europe’s Doorstep. So, Europe obviously has several doorsteps.

I’m very pleased to – that this discussion today. We’ve got three very distinguished speakers. We’ve got Baroness Arminka Helić, Professor Lamija Tanović and Professor Miloš Šolaja. Arminka Helić is a Conservative Peer in the House of Lords. She was Special Advisor, for a long time, to William Hague, Former British Foreign Secretary. In the last few years, she has been a tireless campaigner for the victims of sexual violence during wartime and I dare say she is Britain’s best-known voice, in the last decade, or two decades, I dare say, on all matters Bosnian.

Professor Lamija Tanović will – is joining us today from Sarajevo. She’s a distinguished Scientist, a Diplomat and a educator and she is on the – oh, she is the Chair of Humanity in Action Bosnia-Herzegovina, and Humanity in Action is an NGO dealing with human rights and social justice.

And Miloš Šolaja, Professor of Political Science or International Relations at the University of Banja Luka in Republika Srpska, and distinguished academic and I may say, the best informed, according to me, best informed person on all matters Republika Srpska in Banja Luka, former Journalist as well. And I’m particularly pleased to see you, Miloš, because all too often in discussions about Bosnia-Herzegovina, certainly in Britain, it’s sometimes the problem of the same people. We don’t often hear voices from Republika Srpska. So, a very warm welcome to you today.

As a Journalist, I have to say I don’t cover Bosnia as much as I would like to and there’s a reason for that. Because in the last ten/15 years, Bosnia has been, I have to say, quite boring. I mean, we have crisis, Diplomats come in, threats are made, somehow in the shadows, somehow some sort of compromise is cobbled together and then the issue goes away and then the new crisis start. But in the meantime, I sometimes wonder whether the population, or the people of Banja Lu – the people of, sorry, of Bosnia and Herzegovina are neglected. I mean, let us remember that for – just before the war, Bosnia had a population of four million people, now it has a population of perhaps three, or even less, according to some people. So, you know, people are voting with their feet.

Bosnia has this complicated structure. It’s not necessarily more complicated than other places in Europe. I’m thinking of Belgium. But it’s a question of political will to make it work and do Bosnian Politicians want to make it work or is it possibly a system which is useful for them? It’s useful for them for the issues of political patronage, for corruption and so on and so on, and meanwhile, people suffer. Just before we went live, I was just – we were just discussing with Professor Tanović about smog in Sarajevo. Well, perhaps if Politicians were spending less time on people’s genetics, they could spend more time on smog and other issues. COVID has raised several corruption scandals, one in Republika Srpska, where patients in hospital were given industrial oxygen instead of medical grade oxygen, and in the federation, where the Prime Minster himself is on trial for a scandal involving the procurement of substandard equipment.

Well, you’re not here to listen to me, so let’s open this up. Baroness Helić, you’re in the United Arab Emirates, you’ve got plenty of other things to do, but Bosnia is perhaps your first love. Tell us what we need to know in five minutes about Bosnia.

Baroness Arminka Helić

Yeah, muted. Thank you very much, greetings you in Ukraine and to Professor Tanović and Professor Šolaja in Sarajevo and in Banja Luka. Very nice to meet you and I very much look forward to hearing your views on this issue. I will try to be as short as possible. Your team have posed some interesting questions. I only wish Bosnia was as boring as it seems to be. I always thought I would be happiest when Bosnia disappears from the international headlines and if it occasionally appears because there is a particular skier or a particular football player or a particular artist or a scientist that has been educated and brought up in Bosnia and has managed to smash some impossible record. But unfortunately, we keep on coming back to issues that we have just mentioned.

I will – you know, one could speak about Bosnia forever and what has gone wrong and why it has gone wrong, etc. And I’ve been thinking about this on my way here and I can – I think I would change – I would, sort of, put it in three periods for Bosnia. Bosnia went through a period of progress, stability, in the first ten years of post-Dayton existence and I think that’s entirely due to the fact that there was a very strong international attention put on Bosnia. There were NATO troops on the ground. There were international Judges. There was support from all the countries, whether from Peace Implementation Council or wider.

But also, interestingly enough, it was a time when Russia had its own internal problems, so it didn’t have time to develop or to express its malign influence in the Balkans or elsewhere in Europe and Bosnia’s neighbours also had other issues and other things that they had to deal with. Serbia was recovering from devastating wars of the 1990s, that it played part in, whether in Croatia or Bosnia or Kosovo or – you know, and they were going through a process of a possibility of democratising its political system until the killing of Đinđić. And Croatia, at the time, was very busy charming European Union partners. I remember myself sitting with so – in so many meeting with the Prime Minister and President of Croatia, with promises that Croatia is going to behave like a European partner to all its neighbours, if only we’re to be admitted to the EU and NATO. And that – those times are behind us now and of course, there is a different way in which things have pan out, not only for Bosnia, but for the other countries in the region.

Then there is a second period of disengagement of international community believing that somehow, by some miracle, Bosnia is going to just take off, its neighbours are going to behave like European neighbours of Belgium, as you say. They’re going to leave that country on its own to develop, to stabilise, to allow all its citizens to have certain level of progress and opportunity. Unfortunately, within that period, as I say, Serbia went through major rearmament period of 2015 onwards, where its, I think, defence budget increased by 70%. Croatia has started using its membership of the EU and NATO as a leverage to promote the aims of its proxies within Bosnia and things started to, kind of, slow down and Bosnia, I guess, got bogged down in problems, internal problems, but also problems that have been championed by the countries that are immediate neighbours. And then, in the last ten years, we have seen that Bosnia has been, I would say, almost entirely abundant, if I can say that, by the international community, because having just a nominal presence on the ground, without a plan, which is entirely based on hope, is not a reason, it’s not a very good foundation for establishing and cementing that stability that was achieved in the – at the beginning.

At the same time, we have emergence of two major global players, that is Russia that has found, what I would say, useful fools in the Balkans, people who are going to do their own work that is going to frustrate democracy, that is going to frustrate progress made on those – in those countries that are willing to join EU and NATO, similar to what’s happening in the Ukraine now. And then China, which is in the process of debt trapping countries in the Balkans, whether that is Montenegro, being the most recent ones, or other ones.

So, there is a Bosnia which emerged from the war. As we know, it’s completely destroyed as a country, with some of the most violent deaths imposed upon its population, finally having its neighbours disengage from it, has gone back into that process of being an a – a major attraction to its neighbours and, at the same time, we have emergence and engagement of major players, as I say, like Russia and China. And at the same time, the Dayton Peace Accord, which was a first step in having Bosnia grow as a healthy democratic and strong country, being used and abused by Politicians, whether – whichever side they come from. And you don’t have to speak about sides here. The, you know, Dayton Peace Accords unfortunately allows for bad people to do bad things to the country and, as you rightly point out, it is the ordinary citizens that are having to suffer for that. It is the ordinary citizens that are, you know, voting with their feet because they go and, you know, queue for days to get visas to go and work in the European Union countries, young, educated, hardworking people have not got an opportunity.

And I agree with Professor Tanović, I have been to Sarajevo recently to see that the beautiful city of Sarajevo is, sort of, choking under the layers of smog and is a shame and it’s something that is a measure of how far and how low we have sunk. It is unfortunate that there are Politicians in Bosnia-Herzegovina, Politicians who come from the entity of the RS, who see an opportunity to finish the dream of creation of greater Serbia, of inde – or independence of the RS and that is something that is – that, ooh, that serves as a constantly stabilising factor, because populations are either being kept and gaslit by this idea that they’re going to deliver them autonomy or independence or that someone is going to stop the other side of delivering that.

So, my personal view is that there are three steps that we need to take to address this issue. The first one, we need deterrence force on the ground that is NATO-led. The second one, we need the sanctions against those who are promoting and destabilising Dayton Peace Accords and promoting violence and third one is we knew – need a new social contract for every single citizen in Bosnia-Herzegovina not to have to go and be a member of a so-called constituent people, but to be a member of the Bosnia-Herzegovina and have the right, wherever they come from, to be realised as equal citizens, with equal rights and equal opportunities. Thank you.

Tim Judah

Great, well, thank you very much, and before we go to Professor Tanović, I’m going to say what I should’ve said at the beginning, which is to remind everybody who’s listening that this is being recorded and that if you have a question, please use the Q&A function at the bottom of the screen and, probably we’ll, depending on the time, we will read most of them, or some of them that we can and call – possibly one or two we’ll have time to ask the – that person to unmute themselves and to ask it directly.

Well, thank you very much Baroness Helić. That was very, sort of, trenchant and thank you for giving us a what should be done. Interesting that you mentioned, and in my view, correctly, the problems of the RS, but actually, today, I think it’s not really understood outside of Bosnia that we have another crisis, which is the crisis of electoral reform and the crisis with the HDZ and Bosnian Croat leaders, which is equally, I think, a difficult problem to resolve. But, okay, Professor Lamija Tanović, over to you in Sarajevo.

Professor Lamija Tanović

Thank you very much, Tim. Let me first thank to Chatham House to invite me to – for inviting me to participate in this distinguished panel, with a very interesting title. Yes, it is difficult to concentrate on what one should speak about, because while living here and sitting here, it is difficult to see priorities, because everything is important. And I would disagree with Tim, Bosnia not at all is a boring place and that there is no such a country with such a extravagant structure as Bosnia that makes it totally ungovernable. No wonder that after so many years after peace agreement, we are not able to move this country forward.

So, yeah, I support most of this what Baroness Helić has said, but I have some – my views on that, and I have to apologise, also, in the beginning. I am not Political Scientists, and neither I understand very much these international relations. My scientific area is atomic and nuclear physics, but of course, living in this country, you have to do some interesting and very much needed things, like the human rights issue. That’s the reason I am involved in the Humanity in Action, an international organisation that exists for 20 some years and has branches in the United States, Poland, Denmark, Holland, France, Germany and Bosnia. So, all places where you can find the interesting issues on human rights and Bosnia is the very – is a perfect place to deal with human rights in situ.

So, let me, for instance, go from this – one of the questions put forward in this panel, “Why has the situation in Bosnia been allowed to deteriorate to such a condition?” I have to remind you that it is now 26 years after Dayton Peace Accord was signed. It happened in Paris in December 95. I believe that there has never been the sincere political will of the international community, particularly the European Union, to create serious conditions for the survival of Bosnia-Herzegovina. Many people here think the same way, that the serious effort of the international community to create conditions for the reintegration of the country torn by war, wounded terribly, was permanently missing during all these past four years and particularly, as Baroness Helić said, in the last ten/15 years, maybe. Because if there was the intention or – to create a Bosnia as a stable and sovereign state, the change of the Bosnia-Herzegovina constitution should never be part of the Peace Agreement. By changing the structure of the country in such a strange way as it was done in Annex 4, the Peace Agreement – of this Peace Agreement, an extravagant, as I said before, and totally ungovernable state, was created, a state carved along the frontline of this terrible war.

Why is the new state structure so special, comprising of a republic, a federation and a district? The state, as it was set up, has almost 150 ministries and 14 parliaments and over these 26 years, it has shown itself to be, not just extravagant, I’m repeating all the time, but really ungovernable and very, very expensive. And ever since the Peace Agreement was signed, the internationals have never played the role they should have play. Many actions that were promised never took place, for instance implementation of Annex 7, the return of refugees, has been obstructed for years. It was promised by international community that those who obstruct implementation of the Peace Agreement parts will not get funding and other material support. They never stick to that promise and many, many similar things. In fact, war has never stopped. War has continued, just with other means. Our first neighbours, as it was mentioned before, Serbia and Croatia, have continued to play a similar role as during the war.

But the most dangerous thing why I should say, and I should probably start with was that everything what was happening in Bosnia was allowed to happen. Roles of Serbia and Croatia, particularly recently, they have been allowed by the European Union to do so. So, not only has the situation in Bosnia been allowed to deteriorate, it seems that from the first day, they – there were doubts in the international community that such a state would be able to survive, as if there was always the intention to let it disappear in some way, because there are no such countries in Europe. Politicians in the international community often say to us, here, that in their actions, they were driven by the political reality. What’s political reality? The one which was achieved by ethnic cleansing and genocide.

So, yes, there are many issues. I hope you’ll have time, but I have chosen this issue particular, role of internationals throughout these years and through the war, as well, and this past war, and that’s enough for the start, I believe.

Tim Judah

Great. Well, thank you very much, indeed. I should clarify that I don’t really think that Bosnia is a boring place, but the fact is that sometimes, politically, for a foreign audience, it can be – Bosnian politics can be quite repetitious. We come back to the same issues over again.

Okay, well, now we are going to Banja Luka, Miloš Šolaja in Banja Luka. But how do things look from – for – from where you sit? And don’t forget to unmute yourself, because you’re next.

Professor Miloš Šolaja

Okay, thank you, Tim. Dear Tim, dearest, Judah, I’m really rather – I have splendid opportunity to address at this very famous, and maybe one of the most known forums for discussions in entire world, and I think that the first time that someone speaks from the Republika Srpska, it’s very interesting, very important thing.

Maybe just to characterise the ladder of views, maybe. Sometimes there are many prejudices or many different misinformation that we have when talking about Banja Luka politics and the Republika Srpska. I think that, recently, we have really to rethink in Bosnia-Herzegovina, again, and I think that after almost 27 years after Dayton Peace Accord was signed and, also, after many efforts invested by international community, I think that we are coming to the beginning. Since yesterday, and these really failed negotiations about electoral reform, I have to say and I have to stress maybe this, one of clear sign that not only Serbs are usually taken as the problem in diatribe. Now we have to talk about relations between Bosniaks and Croats. In federation, Bosnia-Herzegovina and their inability to resolve the situation which simply make a new Croat of – in Bosnia-Herzegovina. That problem is more than nine-years-old, and it is not from yesterday. They talked very – where they talk many times about that and they been, you know, exchanging their ideas without any proper results and as the moment, I think that we are not able to make any move forward, in terms of electoral reform.

That’s one new thing that we have to rethink and particularly, we have to rethink the accession of international community towards Bosnia-Herzegovina. It can come here and initial idea of international community was to have advising and maybe some help for the role in Bosnia-Herzegovina, and the first role of our representative was that his duties, how to explain and how to – maybe to analyse the entire practices in Bosnia-Herzegovina, but with that, may – there are many people in Republika Srpska who say that this Implementation Council is some pentomic organisation, because it is not created due to Dayton Peace Accord. It is just something self-organised, self-policed, that employed such a huge authorities, like power and board authorities, that were given to High Representative. But since then, there were many other situations that High Representative did its very hard implement using his powers, that simply suspended democracy.

We have to know that Bosnia-Herzegovina is not 200-years-old democracy, it’s new, transitional democracy. The fact of the first election that it had in 1996 and it is a process of maturing, process of learning how to live in democracy, but actually, it’s with just – this is replaced by its own – maybe all three sides, but dominantly on the Serb side, different Presidents, the MPs, the City Mayors, many other people. If the – it absolutely discourage people to join, you know, in the real political processes.

So, that is the reason that maybe there are many critics of the – from the Republika Srpska in terms of international community presence and actions. Firstly, Office of the High Representative bold institution they’ve imposed, or if not finally imposed, but initially, they impose many laws, and just use political pressure and even blackmails, in order to pass their decision.

There are also puerile decisions that really made – got Bosnia-Herzegovina stuck. Firstly, there are a few property laws that I think in the first line about the law of forests and law about the cul – agricultural land, and finally, that decision that simply block entire Bosnia-Herzegovina, that Inzko’s law about criminalisation of the talk about any type of discussion of genocide is really blockaded and particularly, it was initiation for the Republika Srpska to block their presence, not entirely, but I think that to block the – its presence in our common institutions of Bosnia-Herzegovina. And it is visible that now it’s a – one of the most of the biggest problems for Bosnia-Herzegovina.

The reason is that some people, and some political parties who have presented, they try to take over and turn guilty an entire accusation for dysfunctional Bosnia-Herzegovina, pro configuration and electoral reform to Republika. It’s also new element in inside the entire situation for Bosnia-Herzegovina.

The other thing is also the question of legality of international institutions. Bosnia-Herzegovina is a clear product in the beginning of Scientists, so everywhere are institutionalised models and absolutely on constructionist approach, in terms of maybe building identities or something. But the problem is that, finally, after almost 30 years of developing democracy, the general project, I’m – I have to say it almost failed, because since that both powers, and particularly since the – having the Peace Implementation Council, which is absolutely not clear what it is, because you don’t talk only about Peace Implementation Council, we talk about Steering Board of Peace Implementation Council. But what is it, in fact, and did it, any time, talk about Bosnia-Herzegovina, and what is the position of entire situation was not clear?

I would like to remind on two recommendations, two resolutions of Council of Europe, going for…

Tim Judah

Okay, but quickly, Miloš, but quickly.

Professor Miloš Šolaja

Oh.

Tim Judah

But just one more minute, okay?

Professor Miloš Šolaja

So, 2004 and the Viennese Commission, which did approve the position and the activity of a High Representative, and it’s absolutely necessary to change. And also, it is just connected with the actual situation, because we have a new guy who is a Acting High Representative, but not from the standing point or international law approved, because secur – United Nations Security Council is authorised to set the High Representative. But this time, two big powers, such as Russia and China, are – were against and legally, it is not really a position that he can function his duties, so it – Bosnia-Herzegovina is actually in very, very a bigger situation.

Professor Miloš Šolaja

Just to…

Tim Judah

So, could you…?

Professor Miloš Šolaja

…conclude, because I have…

Tim Judah

Just last line, yeah, go ahead.

Professor Miloš Šolaja

One/two seconds, Bosnia-Herzegovina, due to me, has to find, finally, itself. As Madame Tanović said, I absolutely agree, there is no real constitution. We need constitution, which should be the result, and which be by our citizens, an inheritance of Bosnia-Herzegovina health better and, also, our constitution has never been correctly administrated and never been published in official gazette and nobody knows what does it mean. It’s a clear sign that we don’t manage and don’t govern. Without the situation, I think that it is much more in the hands of international community, but it is not enough for a functional state.

Tim Judah

Great, and thank you very much for that. I’m going to just remind everyone that if you’ve got a question, please put it in the ‘chat’ function. Miloš, I want to ask you very quickly, the moves have been begun in the Republika Srpska National Assembly to withdraw powers that were granted to the state and to start to found – re-found the Republika Srpska Army. Do you think, very briefly, is that actually going to happen, or do you think that some sort of political deal can be found, which will prevent that happening, but briefly?

Professor Miloš Šolaja

I’m absolutely convinced and I really hope that some political deal will be final. I think that this is not the question of the army to revive. They are – it’s just maybe more question to have the right to revive the army, because there are some promises given at the time of the defence reform that were not realised, that firstly, it was – an actual common army is much more expensive than it was promised. On the other hand, there are really many misinterpretations. This is just a question of the request of Republika Srpska to, just to get back to original negotiating rules on Dayton Peace Accord, not of these which are really by violations here.

Tim Judah

Okay, thank you. I’ll – but Professor Tanović, I’m going to come back to you in a minute. I want to go first to Baroness Helić. I mean, one of the things that you said is that things are so serious that you think that there should be a NATO – more – or NATO troops, ‘cause there are no NATO troops, but NATO troops sent to Bosnia, if I understood you rightly. Did I understand you…

Baroness Arminka Helić

That’s correct.

Tim Judah

…rightly?

Baroness Arminka Helić

Yes, yes.

Tim Judah

Yes, good, well…

Baroness Arminka Helić

Well, there’s NATO…

Tim Judah

…you’re in touch…

Baroness Arminka Helić

…agents here in Sarajevo and I think that the numbers of NATO troops on the ground, the only reliable force that could act with any kind of provocation, would be capable of deterring any kind of adventure along those lines.

Tim Judah

Right, okay, and fine, but you talk to people that normal – us normal mortals don’t. Is it likely that that’s going to happen? I mean, what do you hear? I mean, do you hear that Britain and other countries are prepared to do that? Are they talking your suggestion seriously?

Baroness Arminka Helić

I don’t know. I mean, if someone said to me six months ago that Britain would be sending in America number of troops that they are sending in the neighbourhood of the country that you’re currently in, I would say, “Well, that’s highly questionable.” I think it’s not a matter of anyone listening to me. There are other people with knowledge of military and security issues that are related to the Western Balkans that will be much better positioned to say that. Bosnian situation at the moment is not a situation that we – where we’re dwelling on political re – on electoral reform. That is like measuring the curtains in a country that is burning, or in the house that is burning. What we need to focus on, we need to move off the table issues of the borders that are constantly, you know, being used to blackmail the people and political and institutions in Bosnia-Herzegovina and that needs to be taken off the table, that there is a cool environment within which talks can be had. If you are holding a gun to Bosnia’s statehood and Bosnia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, if you’re holding a gun to that head, you cannot make progress and that’s something that we need to address.

And if I may just go back to Professor Šolaja, I was listening to you, thank you so much, this is really interesting to hear a perspective from the entity of the RS. The High Representative does not need to be. He is put in place and he is confirmed by the Steering Board of the Peace Implementation Council, not by the UN Security Council. Issue of genocide is not something that is imposed. You and me, and anyone else, should not deny that genocide, should not celebrate war criminals. It’s not something that it’s in anyone’s interest and if we are thinking about future generations, we don’t want to leave them with the burden of denying, or not denying, genocide. We want to lead them with the prosperity and openness to the rest of the world, so they don’t have to live with this. And I think it is wrong to say that somehow, this has bogged Bosnia down. This is – should have been an opening for Bosnia and every single citizen. For once in a world, this issue needs to be settled and left in the past. We cannot constantly be coming back and negotiating what is a small, what is the big genocide? What does constitute genocide, what doesn’t? Who do we celebrate, who do we not celebrate? We should be looking forward, not back, and I think that is quite an issue that needs to be addressed.

Tim Judah

Okay, well, Miloš, well, do you want to answer that? Will – I will come to you, Professor Tanović, I’m not forgetting you, but that was directed at you, Miloš. Briefly, to respond to that.

Professor Miloš Šolaja

Well, I have to react just briefly. It’s too much violence, too much security, too much army, and all of this business. I think it’s not a vocabulary we really need to have and to loiter here in Bosnia-Herzegovina. I think that the time of war has passed and even recently, after the [inaudible – 36:54], which invited NATO and EUFOR Commanders from NATO and EUFOR, they publicly stated that “This crisis in Bosnia-Herzegovina is not security crisis, it’s a political crisis.” So, they, look, think, it’s not reserved for NATO or even EUFOR to react. The thing is that we have to learn and we have to discover each other and how – we have to learn how to discuss, how to get to the solutions early and we give a common efforts, not only to talk about the categories of army, of force, of violence, of security. It is, at the moment, really sufficient, but I know that perspective outside of Bosnia-Herzegovina is highly on that way.

Tim Judah

Professor Tanović, what…?

Baroness Arminka Helić

If you will allow me, I’ve absolutely…

Tim Judah

Okay, I mean, I don’t want to…

Baroness Arminka Helić

…agree…

Tim Judah

…lose Professor Tanović.

Baroness Arminka Helić

…with Professor Šolaja.

Tim Judah

Sorry, go on.

Baroness Arminka Helić

We need to have a conversation, but why paramilitaries on the streets of Banja Luka on the 9th of January? While – why to have military – militarisation of Police forces in, if we are talking about dialogue, not preparing for conflict?

Tim Judah

Okay, so that…

Professor Miloš Šolaja

And this is…

Tim Judah

What’s the military…?

Professor Miloš Šolaja

…reform. So, yes, we…

Tim Judah

I would really like to hear Professor Tanović. You – we’ll come back to you in a minute. Professor Tanović?

Professor Lamija Tanović

Yes.

Tim Judah

I mean, what – well, how does it look?

Professor Lamija Tanović

As I said in the beginning, I am really not going to concentrate on this what we in Bosnia are doing. First of all, as a people of Bosnia-Herzegovina, we are denied some basic human rights, right to be elected and to elect. You know all this complicated structure. If you live in certain parts, you cannot be elected in the Presidency, so on and so on. Particularly, I’m not going to speak about our Politicians. I will concentrate really, and I do think that internationals have a special responsibility, after not doing, or doing all those too little and too late during the war, they have special – and after imposing on us these annexes, all possible annexes of this Peace Agreement, they have special responsibility to help us to change what they’ve been doing ever since.

So, first of all, European Union has made a big mistake by not giving to all the countries of Former Yugoslavia EU membership at the same time. Now, we have all these problems between Croatia and Slovenia and then we have problems Greece and Macedonia, the North Macedonia, Bulgaria or – we’re just – I could just imagine how many problems we will have, because all of us have this EU perspective, how they say.

So, what should be done? Many things should be done. Role of international community is part of Dayton Peace Agreement. We cannot speak about Dayton Peace Agreement and ignore existence of High Representative. They are mandates, what they are possible and what they are doing. What – so, then, we have these very, I would say, very unfriendly neighbours, to say it in a soft way, so EU should warn its member, Croatia, to stop interfering in Bosnia-Herzegovina internal affairs. They do it all the time, and particularly lately, as Baroness Helić just stressed out, after they resolved all their problems, they are supporting, not the state of Bosnia-Herzegovina on its – the Euro-Atlantic integrations. They support only one out of numerous political parties, this HDZ.

EU should not apply in Bosnia-Herzegovina any strange rules, as they are trying to do, but the same principles, the same rules that are valid in EU countries. EU should not negotiate with the leaders of the nationalistic parties, but with the state institutions in Bosnia-Herzegovina. EU and the UN have their representative offices in Bosnia-Herzegovina, they have their representatives, with a very strong and very wide mandate. They should use them whenever this Peace Agreement is jeopardised.

I also believe that this is a security crisis and not political crisis and instead of that international community intensifies resolution of this crisis, they are dealing with a change of election law and that’s only in the case of so-called legitimate presentation, is, in my view, an invented, an artificial problem. I could compare it to the situation in which you are changing the wallpapers in your house while the earthquake is destroying the ground of the house.

And I have also to mention sanctions issue. I don’t believe very much in sanctions. Yes, they can apply, they can widen them, they can do whatever, but sanctions, remember, have not stopped Milošević, neither they stopped the war in 90s. It would be naïve to believe the sanctions will stop Dodik. Secession has started. Dodik will not stop unless he’s prevented to continue this destruction path. And I – as I said before, everything was going, in Bosnia – all these people, doesn’t matter which side, you know, we have sides, but they have been allowed to do so.

Tim Judah

Okay, do you mind if I stop you there, Professor Tan…?

Professor Lamija Tanović

Yes.

Tim Judah

I go – I’m sorry, because thank – we don’t have that much time, great. I’m going to ask you – well, actually, I think I’m going to go to some of the questions here. I’m just going to read some of them and then some of you can pick them up. John Lough is asking, “What is Russia’s goal in Bosnia?” Hector Perry, “How committed would Russia be to supporting Dodik’s ambition of creating a greater Serbia?” Let’s just keep with those ones. I mean, Miloš, do you think that Russia – I mean, I’m giving you exactly the words of Hector Perry’s question, “Would Russia support Dodik’s goal of creating a greater Serbia?” I mean, don’t forget to unmute. You’re muted, unmute.

Professor Miloš Šolaja

I think that Russian politics toward Republika Srpska is clear and toward Bosnia-Herzegovina, because Russia has specifically said it needs to protect actual Bosnia-Herzegovina as it is. Finally, Russia was a member of [inaudible – 44:35] the Dayton Peace negotiations and maybe that is the reason that it covers Bosnia-Herzegovina more carefully than maybe some other countries.

Tim Judah

Great.

Professor Miloš Šolaja

And that wouldn’t be…

Tim Judah

Do you believe the Russians when they say that?

Professor Miloš Šolaja

I believe, I really believe, right.

Tim Judah

Okay, but…

Professor Miloš Šolaja

The…

Tim Judah

…Baroness Helić, do you believe them?

Professor Miloš Šolaja

…people said it is not…

Baroness Arminka Helić

I totally believe them because they want to keep Bosnia in the state of dysfunctionality, country that is incapable, unviable, cannot join EU, cannot join NATO and forever is like a bleeding wound in the heart of Europe and it can also damage Western interests in the Balkans. I absolutely believe…

Professor Miloš Šolaja

Yes, but Bosnia is ready for…

Baroness Arminka Helić

…that they want nothing more…

Professor Miloš Šolaja

…[inaudible – 45:15]. It’s ready for…

Baroness Arminka Helić

…than to keep Bosnia in as bad…

Professor Miloš Šolaja

…[inaudible – 45:17] Bosnia by…

Baroness Arminka Helić

…a state as possible and I think that they are replicating that now in Donbas region in the Ukraine, where they would love to have another RS to destabilise…

Professor Miloš Šolaja

I have some personal…

Baroness Arminka Helić

…Ukraine in the same way.

Professor Miloš Šolaja

I have some personal experience in the NATO accession, the EU accession and it is not only on the side of Russia to be accused. I think the best thing is, for Bosnia-Herzegovina, is to find out its own way, but its own way that means to follow and to satisfy interests of all people in Bosnia-Herzegovina. I have to convince you, sometimes there is not existing Republika Srpska viewing from Sarajevo and vice versa. There is no Sarajevo watching from the Republika Srpska. It is not the way. It is not a – we have to recognise actual institutional design of Bosnia-Herzegovina and not to play such a strong role with international community. That’s a – that’s maybe one of the biggest shortcomings, nobody would like to find out the way how to be functional. Somebody thinks, still, that international community will make, as the gift, their goals, hmmm, their own goals, not they are authorised to do the - now, you can see that on the question of Hungary. Where some country maybe thinks differently towards Republika Srpska, it’s usually called fascist and maybe authorised and Nazis, and whatever and whatever. It is not allowed it to support Republika Srpska. It’s the case outside Russia. Russia is the part of Dayton Peace package and so, sometime, Russia is the biggest private investor in Republika Srpska. We have to take care about that.

Tim Judah

Okay, great, I’m going to stop you there. I think we’ve got a number of other questions, but I’m going to ask one for myself, but very briefly, to all three of you. In the last few months there were a rush of, kind of, articles in the foreign press saying, “A real serious risk of war is coming again.” Very briefly, Professor Tanović, do you think that’s true, is there a real risk of war again, but briefly?

Professor Lamija Tanović

No, I don’t…

Tim Judah

No?

Professor Lamija Tanović

…think so, no.

Tim Judah

Miloš Šolaja, is there a risk of war again?

Professor Miloš Šolaja

I think no.

Tim Judah

No. Baroness Helić?

Baroness Arminka Helić

I don’t think there is a risk of a violent war that we saw in the 1990s, but I do think that there’s a risk of salami sliced territorial integrity and sovereignty of Bosnia-Herzegovina being destroyed from inside and that has been going on for some time and that continues with energy and enthusiasm that I haven’t seen for quite some years.

Tim Judah

Do – and do you think, since we – Miloš Šolaja raised this, I mean, I raised it, but it – but he also raised it, that a, sort of – that there’s a problem – that we have a problem that we, kind of, concentrate too much on problems coming from the Republika Srpska, but actually, the problem from the HDZ and electoral reform, I mean, it – to a British – to a foreigner, electoral reform sounds, sort of, kind of, relatively mild and dull, but actually, it’s kind of, existential, in a way, to the federation and possibly to Bosnia. Do you think we’re ignoring that at our peril?

Professor Miloš Šolaja

I have to say that maybe the problem of electoral reform is in SDA, because there is a decision of Constitutional Court which is not realised and now they talk about the unrealised decision of Constitutional Court. That is the clear sign that Bosnia-Herzegovina need another crisis management and another approach of international community. It was much easier when only Serbs were guilty for everything, but now we can see that the problem in Bosnia-Herzegovina much more complicated. And it really…

Tim Judah

Well, I mean, did you agree with that, Professor Tanović?

Professor Lamija Tanović

No, not at all, absolutely…

Tim Judah

Oh, why not?

Professor Lamija Tanović

…not. First of all…

Tim Judah

But briefly, but why not?

Professor Lamija Tanović

First of all, that problem of a legitimate – first of all, a decision of a Constitution Court has been implemented already in federation, so does not exist. Parallel to that, we have several, some of them the decisions of the European Court of Human Rights, some of them 12-years-old, for instance, that have not been implemented and nobody cares about that. Just we care that the President of HDZ should be elected for life into this Presidency. That’s exactly what HDZ wants, but it’s a wish, I would say, of a very limited number of people there and this is not human rights issue. Human rights issue is that if you are not member of certain political party, you can bot – cannot be Croat or a Serb or a Bosniak, or particularly others, you know. There are others, I am other. I cannot be – and it’s not the question just in Presidency. I’ve been in a very high professional body as a other. I had no voting right. My presence there doesn’t count. I could just discuss. This is something that we call a accreditation agency, you know, agency that accredits study programmes in – and the universities.

So, I have – and so is the same, this picture is mirrored in all different bodies in this country. This is stupid. It is part of a – we are speaking about some details in Bosnia and Croatia, HDZ, what this is doing. This is not important. If we repair our constitution and the role of internationals, things could work at once. We don’t do that, in fact, internationalists don’t do that.

Tim Judah

Great. Okay, I’m going to, basically, summarise a question here from Makah Menshikov. Makah Menshikov is mentioning the, oh, desp – the Balkan non-paper talking about redrawing of borders in the borders – redraw in the Balkans, and which allegedly came from the Slovenes. Makah Menshikov mentions the name of Janez Janša, the Slovene leader. I mean, obviously, that’s – we don’t know whether it really came from there or whether this thing really existed or what it was. But I mean, is anyone worried about, kind of…

Professor Lamija Tanović

And no, no, no. If I can…

Tim Judah

…complete redrawing of borders in the region again, which are – Professor Tanović, yes or no, are you worried about this…

Professor Lamija Tanović

No.

Tim Judah

…or this more…?

Professor Lamija Tanović

No, no, this looks like gossip, you know, among these big Politicians. We have different prob – we have some substantial problems. For instance, let me just mention this. There is intensive coupling – bracing of high corruption and nationalism. Whenever there is a threat for corruption to be processed, the nationalistic rhetoric activates. The same happens with Čović, with Izetbegović, with Dodik, so we have to solve these problems. Our judicial system is not working properly. These things should be – you know that even the – everything what’s put in this constitution doesn’t work properly.

Tim Judah

Okay, let me stop you. Miloš Šolaja, do you agree with that, nationalism is all too often used as a cover for corruption in Bosnia-Herzegovina?

Professor Miloš Šolaja

Yes, absolutely. As you know, I had many opportunities to say that we need to adopt our own constitution, which would be – which would make the political situation more stable, and in that case, we can be occupied much more with the real problems, such icon…

Professor Lamija Tanović

Professor Šolaja, I have to disagree. We had 26 years to do it by ourselves, assisted a little bit, but it was not enough.

Professor Miloš Šolaja

Yeah, I think we – but we haven’t – we never try to do that. This text…

Professor Lamija Tanović

Yes, we tried, we tried.

Professor Miloš Šolaja

This text is written by Americans in Dayton, there’s the problem. It is not our text. We have to pass it and to give to that legitimacy. Now, this is – this constitutional enables that nationalism to nurture high corruption and deliver that, because they…

Tim Judah

Right, can…?

Professor Miloš Šolaja

…work everything, in terms of protecting of national interest, always.

Tim Judah

Let me stop you there. Baroness Helić, the non-papers, redrawing of borders, is this gossip, as Professor Tanović says, or is there something sinister and real behind all of this?

Baroness Arminka Helić

I’m afraid, from what I know, this is something real and Slovenia, and under Janez Janša, obviously, feels that it hasn’t got a major role to play in the Balkans or in European affairs, so they have decided to come and be free to discuss other countries borders. Unfortunately, I personally think that rewar – redrawing of borders in the Balkans was finished in the 1990s and we need to look forward, rather than back, and we know how those adventures finish. So, unfortunately, there is some truth, I believe, in non-paper being put into the circulation and even discussed in countries like Hungary and elsewhere.

Tim Judah

Susan Laffey has just come up, who is at the Foreign Office Research Department, “What are your key messages for UK policymakers?” Have you got a message for them?

Baroness Arminka Helić

I’ll let the others, if I may.

Tim Judah

Okay, fine, Professor Tanović?

Professor Lamija Tanović

Oh, we were pleased recently. When I say ‘we’, I always regard we people, ordinary people of Bosnia-Herzegovina, we were pleased with the intensive engagement of Great Britain into the problem that we have in Bosnia-Herzegovina, particularly now when they are out of European Union, because I think that their foreign policy was crippled while being a part of European Union foreign policy. European Union has no foreign policy, in my view. You know, I’m not professional and I have to apologise about these statements. So, they should continue the way they started. They should inform the public in their country what’s going on. They should extend these sanctions, probably, which – it will work, but we should, first, implement what we have now and what we have is Dayton Peace Agreement in all its parts. Before, yes, I agree that this constitution is not our constitution. We had no idea that someone is redesigning our country when it was done in 95, but we can parallel working on our own constitution. In meantime, let’s do on this what we have. High Representative is a part of their decisions. His decisions should be obeyed and implemented and as many times it was said that Dayton Peace Accord is not Swedish table that you pick up what you like. You don’t like High Representative, you don’t like to have it. You don’t like decision of the PIC, P-I-C, you – and so on.

Tim Judah

Okay.

Professor Lamija Tanović

We have to take it all.

Tim Judah

Okay, let me stop you there, because we’ve got about two minutes left. Miloš Šolaja, Britain is considering putting sanctions on Mr Dodik and other people in the Republika Srpska, following the Americans. What would be your advice to the Foreign Office, the FCDO, on this?

Professor Miloš Šolaja

Knowing earlier history and recent history, I would like to recommend we sustain them when we – when they have to talk about Bosnia-Herzegovina, because I don’t know what is the real British interest in the entire Balkans, not only in Bosnia-Herzegovina. I think also that any type of maybe analysis or instructive approach, or maybe some other assistance, would be welcome, in terms if you would like to talk about democracy in multi-ethnical societies, or maybe a state building or something, but not direct engagement.

And I also agree deeply with Madame Tanović that any sanction, that they simply cannot give anything positively because it just maybe produce heroes of some people in their communities and it would have not be so useful. The process is maturing, unfortunately, and I have not the time to explain what does it mean, but my private opinion is that process of position in Bosnia-Herzegovina, post-socialist position, has still not started, that’s the problem. We still live just captured in old models, old views, old habits and that is the problem that we need much more active and constructive approach.

Tim Judah

Great. Well, look, we’re coming to the end. Baroness Helić, would you like to have a kind of – say one last thought?

Baroness Arminka Helić

One last thought is I hope that United Kingdom shows the same level of determination and focus that we have shown when it comes to Ukraine. This is a second frontline when it comes to the malign influence of Russia in certain parts of Europe and only by a strong and decisive action and pushback will we ensure that the region remains on the path of stability, rather than return to some of the uglier times of the past.

Tim Judah

Great, well, thank you very much, indeed, and thank you very much to all of my panellists. To people asking questions, I’m afraid we didn’t have time to get to all of the questions. I mean, I think this was really fascinating, because it – I mean, we had a conclusion there was no new conflict coming, possi – but perhaps risk of violence, but no new conflict, and I think that a lot of our people will have tuned in, possibly, to…

Professor Lamija Tanović

Could I say…

Tim Judah

…know that.

Professor Lamija Tanović

…one sentence, please?

Tim Judah

Well, if it’s very brief.

Professor Lamija Tanović

Yes, internationals should not exercise with Bosnia-Herzegovina a special case – we should not be special case, just a ordinary European country. Everything what is applied to any European country should be applied in Bosnia. In that case, everything will be fine.

Tim Judah

Great. Okay, well, look, I have the feeling that if all of our panellists were Bosnian leaders, they might not dis – you might not agree on everything, but I suspect you probably could find ways to agree and to compromise. But unfortunately, you are not Bosnian leaders, but – so, on that note, I will say thank you very much to everybody. Thank you very much for Chatham House for organising all of this and stay safe wherever you are. Thank you very much, everybody.

Professor Lamija Tanović

You too.

Tim Judah

And thank you to all of my…

Professor Miloš Šolaja

Thank you.

Tim Judah

…panellists, again.

Baroness Arminka Helić

Thank you.

Professor Miloš Šolaja

Thanks a lot for invitation.

Professor Lamija Tanović

Thank you very much to all.

Baroness Arminka Helić

Thank you.